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Sports

College Football: B1G Bets! Expert Picks for the Big Ten Championship Game

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College Football: B1G Bets! Expert Picks for the Big Ten Championship Game

2021-12-02 13:38:56

 

-by Daniel Mogollon, Staff Writer; Image: Michigan running back Hassan Haskins scored five touchdowns against Ohio State. (Image Source: Getty Images)

Last Week: 6-4 (+2 Units); Season: 45-30-1 (+20½ Units)

Sides: 36-21-1 (+18 Units); Game Total: 1-4 (-1½ Units); Team Total: 8-5 (+4 Units)

Here are Championship Week’s B1G Bets:

B1GGEST BETS (2 Units): Last Week: 1-1; Season: 9-4-1 (+10 Units)

Michigan -10½ Iowa

The Wolverines proved last week they are a legitimate National Championship contender. That’s right, I said it. Tell me why Michigan can’t win it all? But before they get to the College Football Playoffs they must beat the Iowa Hawkeyes, who are probably the second or third best team in the B1G West. This is a mismatch.

We know Iowa wants to run the football. The problem is, they’re not very good at it. The Hawkeyes are 11th in the Big Ten in rushing offense (121.2 YPG) and yards per carry (3.3 YPC). Yes, junior Tyler Goodson has rushed for 1,101 yards (4.6 YPC), however, he’s done most of his damage against teams in the bottom half of the Big Ten in rushing defense. There are seven B1G defenses that allow 3.5 yards per carry or less (everyone else is at 4.2 or above) and in three games against the better defenses, he struggled. Goodson averaged 2.1 YPC versus Wisconsin (No. 1 in B1G in YPC allowed), 3.3 YPC versus Minnesota (No. 2 in B1G in YPC allowed), and 3.5 YPC versus Penn State (Tied/No. 5 in B1G in YPC allowed) with no rushing touchdowns.

How does Michigan’s run defense stack up? They’re tied for fifth in the B1G at 3.5 YPC allowed. Other than the Michigan State game the Wolverines have been tough to run on. Last week, Mike Macdonald’s unit held TreVeyon Henderson to just 74 yards and 4.4 YPC, arguably his least productive game this season all while preoccupied with the best passing offense in the country.

Expect the Hawkeyes to find themselves in passing situations which is when they’re really going to be in trouble. They average 6.4 yards per pass and complete 54.8 percent of their attempts (only Indiana and Illinois are worse in the B1G). Everyone knows about center Tyler Linderbaum and he’s a stud, but their tackles are shaky. Pro Football Focus grades their pass blocking 98th in the country. A potential disaster against the bookends of Aidan Hutchinson (13 sacks) and David Ojabo (11 sacks). Both are projected as first-round picks in the upcoming NFL Draft with Hutchinson talked about as a potential No. 1 overall selection. Yes, he/they are that good.

That’s the head of the spear to a pass defense that is 10th in yards allowed per coverage snap (per PFF). Their secondary is not too shabby either, ranked 16th by Pro Football Focus in coverage. The Wolverines have one of the most talented and deepest groups of safeties, led by senior Brad Hawkins and junior Daxton Hill, which is why they typically have three safeties on the field. Hill’s versatility allows it because he’s one of the better covermen in the Big Ten when he takes over slot duties. DJ Turner earned a starting job at midseason and has been one of the best cornerbacks in the BIG with Vincent Gray having a nice bounce-back season as well. The new defense suits this group much better than the previous scheme.

On offense, Michigan has the kind of rushing attack Kirk Ferentz has wet dreams about. PFF gives the Wolverines the fourth-highest rushing grade with Blake Corum and Hassan Haskins two of 11 backs nationally to post grades of 90-plus. The speedy Corum excels at making would-be tacklers miss with the homerun speed to take runs the distance, while Haskins seems to always fall forward and is as reliable as any runner when it comes to converting first downs/touchdowns (18 TDs).

Yes, Iowa’s run defense is elite, but don’t assume they will slow the Wolverines down. Haskins has gone over 150 yards rushing in three of the past four games, including 156 yards at Penn State and a career-high 169 yards (6.0 YPC) against Ohio State last week (with 5 TDs). Corum returned against OSU after missing the previous two games and picked up 87 yards on six carries (14.5 YPC).

As good as Iowa’s defense is, they’ve been a bit of a bully defense that has faced just two offenses in the top 50 in yards per play (Iowa State in W2 & Nebraska in W13), one in the top 25 in total offense (Nebraska), and one in the top 70 in scoring offense (Iowa State). Iowa State outgained Iowa 339 yards to 173 and they faced Nebraska without Adrian Martinez (still allowed 21 points), while Minnesota rushed for 189 of their 409 total yards and Wisconsin’s Braelon Allen went for 104 yards (5.2 YPC) against them.

Michigan’s offense is the best one the Hawkeyes will face this season and that includes Cade McNamara, a big edge for the Wolverines in the quarterback matchup. He leads an offense that is 11th in EPA per attempt and has the fifth-lowest rate of turnover plays in the passing game per PFF. McNamara’s three interceptions are the fewest among B1G starters and his 8.1 YPA is very sold. He’s also handled himself well against elite defenses: 5 TDs to no INTs against Penn State (No. 1 in B1G in YPA) and Wisconsin (No. 1 in B1G in passing defense). It also helps that Iowa will be without second-team All-B1G cornerback Matt Hankins.

In addition to creating turnovers, Iowa has also relied heavily on their excellent special teams (ranked 5th by SP+)—a blocked punt for a touchdown was the game-changer in their win at Nebraska last week—but Michigan’s unit (2nd SP+) is actually ranked ahead of them. Special teams should be a wash in terms of edge.

Finally, while Iowa has lost only twice this season…both times it was by 17 points. The Wolverines are just as physical and stout as Iowa (in some cases more so), have more athleticism, and a significantly better quarterback. This is a special group from Ann Arbor with a different vibe than previous Jim Harbaugh teams so don’t fall into the let-down trap. They’ve talked about the job being far from finished and are just as hungry for a Big Ten title/playoff appearance as they were to beat Ohio State.

Let’s also look at the value. Only two teams are ranked in the top 20 in both total offense and defense. Michigan and Alabama. Only two Power 5 teams are ranked in the top 15 in both scoring offense and defense. Michigan and Georgia. Now, imagine either Georgia or Alabama was coming off a decisive 15-point win over Ohio State…how much would they be favored against Iowa?

Iowa: Out Indefinitely: DL Ethan Hurkett; Out: CB Matt Hankins; Doubtful: CB Terry Roberts; Probable: OT Mason Richman, OG Cody Ince; Michigan: Out for Season: WR Ronnie Bell; Probable: RB Blake Corum, CB Gemon Green

Total: 43½; Money Line: Michigan -450/Iowa +360

Time: 8:00 p.m. ET; TV: FOX (Gus Johnson, Joel Klatt)

Location: Indianapolis, IN; Stadium: Lucas Oil Stadium (70,000)

Michigan – CFB Playoffs: 2; AP Top 25: 2; Coaches Poll: 3; SP+: 4; PFF: 5

Iowa – CFB Playoffs: 13; AP Top 25: 15; Coaches Poll: 12; SP+: 21; PFF: 14

B1GGER BET (1 Unit): Last Week: 3-1; Season: 22-11 (+11 Units)

Iowa Under 16.5 Points

Let’s dig deeper into the numbers. The analytics will tell you Iowa’s offense is one of the worst in the Big Ten. They’re 92nd per SP+, 115th in passing success rate, 117th in EPA per pass, and 122nd in EPA per run. Michigan is seventh in EPA allowed per carry and SP+, while PFF ranks them sixth in run-defense grade. This is where the mismatch between the teams is most stark.

Against teams ranked below 35th in SP+ offense (an 8-game sample), Michigan allowed 11.9 PPG with a high of 17 points. Going even further into Iowa territory, the Wolverines have played five teams who are ranked 70th or worse in SP+ offense and they allowed 9.4 PPG with a high of 13.

Not only were both of Iowa’s losses by 17 points, but they also managed just a single touchdown in each defeat. Why? Because they were unable to create a single turnover in either game and couldn’t pass block edge rushers like Nick Herbig (2.5 of Wisconsin’s 6 sacks) and George Karlaftis (1 of Purdue’s 4 sacks; 3 QB hurries).

In Michigan, Iowa faces a team that protects the football (9 turnovers/tied for fewest in the B1G/6th fewest nationally) and has the best pass-rushing duo in the nation. This isn’t a bad matchup for Michigan, it’s a bad matchup for Iowa.

B1G BETS (1/2 Unit): Last Week: 2-2; Season: 14-15 (-0.5 Unit)

See for Bowl Season!

 
 
 
 

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