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Sports

College Football: B1G Bets! Expert Picks for Week 7 in the Big Ten

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College Football: B1G Bets! Expert Picks for Week 7 in the Big Ten

2021-10-15 13:42:07

 

-by Daniel Mogollon, Staff Writer; Image: Wisconsin freshman running back Braelon Allen. (Image Source: Michael Hickey / Getty Images)

Here are Week 7’s B1G Bets: Last Week: 2-2 (+0.5 Unit); Season: 19-11 (+10.5 Units):

B1GGEST BETS (2 Units): Last Week: 1-1; Season: 5-2 (+6 Units)

None

B1GGER BET (1 Unit): (Last Week: 1-0; Season: 8-4; +4 Units)

WISCONSIN -13.5 Army

We told you last week was a get-right game for the Badgers and that’s exactly how it played out in a 24-0 win at Illinois. They rushed for 391 yards on 61 carries compared to 19 pass attempts by Graham Mertz. While Mertz didn’t have a great game, he did have an excellent third quarter (7 of 9 for 85 yards), so there’s something to build on as they return to Madison.

They don’t need a lot from the offense to work their way back into the top 25, because the defense might be as good as any in the Big Ten (yes, including Iowa). Army is a one-dimensional triple-option team that needs to run the football and Wisconsin might be their worst matchup. Jim Leonard’s defense leads the nation in rushing yards per game (41.4) and yards per carry allowed (1.66), while Army’s quarterback Christian Anderson, their leading rusher, is dealing with a shoulder injury.

Wisconsin: Out for Season: TE Cole Dakovich, CB Al Ashford, LS Duncan McKinley; Out Indefinitely: RB Antwan Roberts, TE Jack Eschenbach, LB Aaron Witt, CB Deron Harrell; Out: LB Jordan Turner, S Tyler Mais; Questionable: RB Isaac Guerendo, FB Quan Easterling, OT Logan Bruss, K Jack Van Dyke; Army: Questionable: QB Christian Anderson, RB Tyson Riley, OL Connor Bishop

Total: 38.5; Money Line: Wisconsin -600/Army +450

Time: 3:30 p.m. ET; TV: BTN (Brandon Gaudin, James Laurinaitis)

Location: Madison, WI; Stadium: Camp Randle (80,321)

Wisconsin – AP Top 25: NR; Coaches Poll: NR

Army – AP Top 25: NR; Coaches Poll: NR

Nebraska -3.5 MINNESOTA

While I’m a little worried about a let-down after coming so close to upsetting Michigan last week (as well as Nebraska doing Nebraska things), I’m back on the Huskers. They’re simply playing too well to ignore and with three games against top-10 teams (all one-score losses) come in very battle-tested. In their last three against non-top-10 teams, Nebraska has won by 45 (52-7 vs. Fordham), 25 (28-3 vs. Buffalo), and 49 points (vs. Northwestern). Is Minnesota better than those teams? Sure, but by how much? The Golden Gophers barely beat Miami (Ohio) and lost to Bowling Green to drop to 1-2 at home this season.

With Trey Potts suffering a season-ending injury against Purdue, they are down to their third-string running back and quarterback Tanner Morgan has been bad this season (112th in adjusted completion percentage). The Huskers have the better quarterback (Adrian Martinez is 8th nationally in YPP), the more explosive offense, a stronger running game (21st in EPA per carry vs. 80th in rushing success rate), and the stouter defense. This team knows it’s now or never and won’t let last week’s L spill over into this week.

Minnesota: Out for Season: RB Mohamed Ibrahim, RB Treyson Potts; Probable: WR Dylan Wright; Nebraska: Out for Season: RB Gabe Ervin Jr., LB Will Honas, S Javin Wright; Out Indefinitely: TE Thomas Fidone II

Total: 48.5; Money Line: Nebraska -175/Minnesota +155

Time: 12:00 p.m. ET; TV: ESPN2 (Brian Custer, Kelly Stouffer)

Location: Minneapolis, MN; TFC Bank Stadium (50,805)

Minnesota – AP Top 25: NR; Coaches Poll: NR

Nebraska – AP Top 25: NR; Coaches Poll: NR

B1G BETS (1/2 Unit): (Last Week: 0-1; Season: 6-5; +0.5)

Purdue +12 IOWA

I find the fact that Iowa was a 14.5-point favorite over Purdue in the preseason and after a 6-0 start to reach No. 2 in the country, the line has somehow gone down in this game fascinating. Explain that one to me? There’s one potential reason. Iowa’s offense. The Hawkeyes have a 36.2 percent success rate which is 119th in the country. They are dead last in the Big Ten in yards per play (4.6). Just to be clear, that’s worse than Rutgers and Illinois. While the Hawkeyes clearly have the better defense, the Boilermakers are much improved on that side of the ball (4.8 YPP/4th in the B1G) and underrated. Iowa looks to be down elite corner Riley Moss and no team focuses on a weak link in the secondary more than Purdue, an offense that continues to target a specific defender more than most.

Three other factors to consider: There’s the potential for some letdown. Iowa opened the season against ranked Indiana, traveled to top-10 in-state rival ISU, went to an undefeated Maryland on a Friday night, and last week hosted No. 4 PSU, needing a come-from-behind win. Their off week is coming up and that’s sometimes when teams take their foot off the gas.

Last week, Kirk Ferentz said Iowa fans “smelled a rat” (really Kirk?), well this week I smell something fishy. The No. 2 team in the country is just a 12-point favorite against an unranked team? Finally, Jeff Brohm seems to have Iowa’s number. Purdue has won three of four against the Hawkeyes and all four games have been one-score contests.

Preseason Line: Iowa -14.5

Iowa: Out Indefinitely: DL Ethan Hurkett, CB Riley Moss; Purdue: Out for Season: RB Sampson James, WR Mershawn Rice, WR Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen, TE Jack Cravaack, CB Cory Trice; Out Indefinitely: RB Zander Horvath, OG DJ Washington; Out: RB Ja’Quez Cross; Questionable: DE DaMarcus Mitchell; Probable: TE Payne Durham

Total: 43; Money Line: Iowa -460/ Purdue +360

Time: 3:30 p.m. ET; TV: ABC (Dave Pasch, Dusty Dvoracek)

Location: Iowa City, IA; Stadium: Kinnick Stadium (70,585)

Purdue – AP Top 25: NR; Coaches Poll: NR

Iowa – AP Top 25: 2; Coaches Poll: 2

FOUR-TEAM PARLAY PLAY:

Indiana ML/MSU Under 26.5/Northwestern ML/Army Under 11.5

OTHER GAMES:

Michigan State -4.5 INDIANA

This is a huge game for Indiana’s bowl hopes. They are 2-3 with games against Ohio State and at Michigan upcoming, so a loss here and there will be no margin of error to get to six wins and continue their bowl streak. With an extra week to prepare and talent in the secondary, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Hoosiers make this a game. But, if these teams play the way they have this season, Sparty should win hands down. Add in the fact that IU corners Reese Taylor and Tiawan Mullen are a game-time decision…this is a pass for me. BTW…check out the preseason line. Talk about value to be had.

Preseason Line: Indiana -16

Michigan State: Out Indefinitely: WR Ricky White, DE Drew Beesley, LB Carson Casteel; Questionable: QB Anthony Russo, RB Elijah Collins;TE Adam Berghorst, DE Jack Camper; Indiana: Out for Season: RB David Ellis, WR D.J. Matthews Jr., CB Christopher Keys; Questionable: QB Michael Penix Jr., DE James Head Jr., CB Tiawan Mullen, CB Reese Taylor; Probable: S Raheem Layne

Total: 48.5; Money Line: Michigan State -185/Indiana +165

Time: 12:00 p.m. ET; TV: FS1 (Aaron Goldsmith, Brock Huard)

Location: Bloomington, IN; Stadium: Memorial Stadium (52,929)

Michigan State – AP Top 25: 10; Coaches Poll: 9

Indiana – AP Top 25: NR; Coaches Poll: NR

Rutgers -2 NORTHWESTERN

Full transparency, I wrote a paragraph about why I’m picking Northwestern (should Rutgers really be a road favorite in a B1G game?) but took a look in the mirror and asked myself…what are you doing? Both of these teams are bad. Even if Rutgers shouldn’t be a road favorite do I really want to put my hard-earned (debatable) money on the Wildcats? There’s no need.   

Rutgers: Out Indefinitely: OL Raiqwon O’Neal, CB Chris Long, CB Max Melton; Questionable: QB Noah Vedral, WR Aron Cruickshank, WR Bo Melton; Northwestern: Out for Season: RB Cam Porter, OL Zachary Franks; Out Indefinitely: WR Berkeley Holman; Questionable: QB Andrew Marty, WR JJ Jefferson

Total: 45; Money Line: Rutgers -130/ Northwestern +110

Time: 12:00 p.m. ET; TV: BTN (Mark Followill, Matt Millen)

Location: Evanston, IL; Stadium: Ryan Field (47,130)

Northwestern – AP Top 25: NR; Coaches Poll: NR

Rutgers – AP Top 25: NR; Coaches Poll: NR

Daniel Mogollon is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America and the Football Writers Association of America. He is also a voter for the Thorpe, Maxwell, Bednarik, and the Rotary Lombardi Awards, as well as the Latino Sports MVP Awards. You can reach him via email: danmogollon@gmail.com.                      

 
 
 
 

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