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With a Week to Go, Poll Shows Biden Extending Lead in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania

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With a Week to Go, Poll Shows Biden Extending Lead in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania

2020-10-27 15:40:27

By Laura Tucker, Staff writer; Image: Joe Biden (Image source: Screenshot)

It's good news for Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, as his lead has increased in the "blue wall" states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. It seems what's making the difference are undecided voters finally choosing a side. One poll that is almost always favorable to Donald Trump has Trump with a small lead overall, but it's just about the only one.

The Elections Research Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison poll found that the former vice president nearly doubled his lead in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania from last month to this month.

In all three states, Biden sits with more than 50 percent, while Trump is down in the low- to middle-40s, where he has been since spring.

Biden leads in the state of Michigan by 10 points, 52 to 42. Another five percent are still undecided, one week out. Last month Biden only had a six-point advantage in the state.

Over in Wisconsin, Biden has a nine-point lead, 53 to 44. Only three percent are still undecided. He's more than doubled his advantage from last month.

Pennsylvania is the closest of the three states, but still, Biden carries an eight-point lead, 52 to 44. Three percent in the state are still undecided.

Along with gaining the approval of the formerly-undecided voters, Biden is also winning with voters who voted third party in 2016 or didn't vote at all. Biden leads the 2016 third-party voters in these states 54 to 25 percent. Twenty-one percent say they'll still support a third-party candidate. He leads 64 percent to 29 percent among voters who didn't vote last time around.

Biden looks like he's running away with those who said they already voted. A percentage of 87 in Pennsylvania said they voted for him, with 75 in Michigan and 73 in Wisconsin.

Trump leads among voters who are vowing to vote on Election Day, but it doesn't appear to be enough to make up that huge margin Biden has. With people who say they will vote on November 3, 57 percent in Michigan say they will vote for Trump, 59 percent in Pennsylvania, and 57 percent in Wisconsin.

Biden wins big with women as well, as he's leading by 20 points among women in those three states while Trump leads men by only three percent.

Among independents, Biden has a slim two-point advantage, and he has a  nine-point lead among suburban voters, the reason why Trump is begging suburban women to vote for him. Both of those groups chose Trump in 2016.

Biden leads with minorities, but not as many as Hillary Clinton led with in 2016. He leads the Black vote 83 to 12 percent, the Hispanic vote 67 to 26 percent, and 57 to 33 percent among non-white voters.

This poll was taken among 80 voters from October 13 to October 21.

The Rasmussen Reports released its new poll this month, showing Trump with a slim lead. However, it's the only poll to show this, and it is historically favorable to Trump.

This poll gives Trump a 48 to 47 percent advantage of likely voters across the country. Thee percent said they'd vote for a third-party candidate, and two percent were still undecided.

Rasmussen also showed a 52-percent approval for Trump's job performance, with 46 percent disapproving.

Nearly every other recent survey differs from the Rasmussen poll. The polling analysis site FiveThirtyEight's average of approval polls gives Trump 42.7 percent approval and 53.5 percent disapproval.

Additionally, Rasmussen shows Biden with a 9.4 percent national lead. Of the polls released on the same day as the Rasmussen poll, Biden has a seven-percent lead in an IBD/Tipp poll of likely voters. It's the next closest in numbers to Rasmussen.

FiveThirtyEight also gave Trump a 12-percent chance of winning, while it gave him a 24.8-percent chance in 2016, eight days before the election. 

This poll was conducted online and over the phone among 1,500 likely voters on October 21, October 22, and October 25.

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