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Polls Show Biden Leads Trump by 10% and Public Trusts Him More to Fill SCOTUS Seat

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Polls Show Biden Leads Trump by 10% and Public Trusts Him More to Fill SCOTUS Seat

2020-09-28 22:28:44

By Laura Tucker, Staff writer; Image: Joe Biden (Image source: Screenshot)

While some polls have been released showing that the gap between Donald Trump and Joe Biden is tightening the closer we get to the election, when you go poll for poll, the numbers appear much the same. A Washington Post-ABC News poll is showing Biden with a 10 percent lead, statistically unchanged from last month.

Biden and running mate Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) are favored over Trump and Mike Pence by 53 percent to 43 percent among registered voters, while last month the Biden/Harris ticket showed a 12-point lead. The Democrats have a 10-percent advantage among likely voters as well, 54 percent to 44 percent.

When Libertarian Party nominee Jo Jorgensen and Green Party nominee Howie Hawkins are thrown in the mix, Biden's lead is cut to six points among likely voters and registered voters.

Trump has a 55 to 42 percent lead with likely male voters,  while Biden carries the likely female voters with a larger margin of 65 to 34 percent. In 2016 Trump had the same approximate lead with men, but Biden's lead among women is more than twice what 2016 Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton's was.

The difference between the Post-ABC poll and the national polls that show a closer race is that the national polling shows only the potential popular vote while the Post-ABC poll shows an indicator of the state-by-state electoral votes that will determine who wins. This is all-important this year with Clinton winning 3 million more popular votes in 2016 but still losing the electoral college.

Nearly 6 in 10 registered voters say they are following the race "very closely." This is higher than any other presidential election at this point going back to 2000.

The number of voters saying they are certain to vote is higher than in previous elections as well. Eighty-nine percent of registered voters say they are certain to vote, while only 83 percent said the same four years ago.

Trump does elicit more enthusiasm from his supporters. Sixty-five percent of those who favor Trump say they are very enthusiastic about their support, while 47 percent Biden backers  say they are very enthusiastic.

Seventy percent of Biden's supporters feel Trump winning reelection would be "a crisis for the country." Yet, only 59 percent of Trump voters say a Biden victory would result in the same.

Sixty-four percent of Biden supporters say the empty Supreme Court seat makes it "more important" that Biden wins, while only 37 percent of Trump supporters say the same about the importance of filling that seat. Additionally, Biden leads Trump by eight points when it comes to confidence in handling the justice appointment.

Trump continues to get low marks for his handling of the presidency. Forty-four percent say they approve, with 53 percent disapproving and 46 percent strongly disapproving. This is better than the 39-percent approval rating he held in July with southern states surging with the pandemic.

With the economy, 52 percent of the public have a favorable opinion of Trump's handling of the economy with 45 percent having a negative opinion.

Only 40 percent approve of the way he has handled the pandemic with 58 percent disapproving. Fifty-three percent trust Biden to deal with the coronavirus while 41 do not, and 54 percent trust him to deal with health care overall.

When it comes to racial injustice, it's no surprise Biden has a more favorable opinion with his strong numbers with the Black vote. Voters trust him more to handle the situation 55 to 39 percent. While Trump is focusing on violence and referring to himself as the "law and order president," 51 percent trust Biden more compared to 44 percent trusting the current president. Fifty-five percent support recent protests against police brutality with 42 percent opposing.

The White vote makes up about 7 in 10 voters across the nation with the percentage higher in the upper midwest. Trump has a slim six-point lead among likely White voters, which is much smaller than his 16-point lead four years ago.

He also bests Biden with White men with college degrees with eight points and has a huge 39-point lead with White men without degrees. Biden leads with White women with college degrees by 41 points and is nearly even with White women without degrees. Clinton lost the White women without degrees vote by 23 points in 2016.

Biden has a huge 53-point lead amongst all non-White voters, and among Black registered voters, Biden leads by a stunning 88 percent to 9 percent, similar to Clinton's margin but a little lower than former President Barack Obama received in 2008 and 2012.

Biden is ahead with all college-educated voters by 30 points but six points behind with voters without degrees. Clinton won the college-graduate demographic by 21 points and lost the no-degree vote by seven.

With the senior crowd, Biden has 52 percent support compared to Trump's 47 percent. Four years ago Trump won the demographic by seven and nine points, depending. The older Biden supporters are also more likely to say it would b a crisis if Trump was reelected. Seventy-nine percent of them believe this. 

Throughout the pandemic, Black Lives Matter protests, the fight over Ginsburg's seat, etc. Biden's lead hasn't changed much. But what could upset the apple cart one way or another could be the the presidential debates. Trump and Biden will be meeting up for their first head-to-head on Tuesday night.

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