22 Nov 2014 08:50 PM EST
-by Daniel Mogollon, Staff Writer; Image: Detroit WR Calvin Johnson has 69 career TD receptions. (Image Source: Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
Here are this week’s picks:
Lions +7 ½ PATRIOTS
This is an inflated line because of the public’s love of New England. The Lions have the NFL’s best defense so getting more than a touchdown is too many points in my opinion. Plus, it’s possible the Patriots—yes even the Patriots—could look past Detroit. Why? They just won a big game at Indy on Sunday night and next week they travel to Green Bay in what will be billed as a Super Bowl preview.
Titans +11 EAGLES
Should QB Mark Sanchez be laying 11 against anyone? I’m sure he’ll hit on a big play or two against the Titans, but I’m also pretty confident he’ll make a mistake or two as well. Gimmie the points because…and stop me if you’ve heard this before…the Titans get paid to play football too.
VIKINGS +10 Packers
Predictably the ticket count is around 9-to-1 in favor of the Packers, so we’re siding with the books here. Like the Pats, the Packers line is being inflated. Double digits at home, even against a juggernaut offense, grab the points and run. We told you the same thing with the Rams hosting the Broncos a week ago…how did that work out?
Jaguars +14 COLTS
The Colts have handled bad teams with ease and the public is loathe to play the Jags (unlike myself…I know…what does that say about me? Masochist maybe?). But this line is simply too high not to grab the points.
Cardinals +7 SEAHAWKS
Seriously? Has anyone watched the Seahawks play this season? Let me spell it out for you…they…are…not…as…good…as…they…were…last…season. Their passing offense has major issues and Arizona’s secondary matchups favorably against Seattle’s pass catchers, which means the Hawks will need to run the ball against a Cards D that hasn’t allowed a 100-yard runner in forever. This line is as if the first 10 games of 2014 never happened.
Dolphins + 7 BRONCOS
The Phins are underrated, red hot and they present a matchup nightmare for the Broncos. Miami’s elite pass rushers should give Denver’s shifting offensive line major issues. Not only are the Broncos doing shuffling in the trenches they are banged at running back, tight end and wide receiver. As Tom Brady and Gisele learned in Super Bowl XLVI, the quarterback can’t throw and catch the football, so this might be the rare day to sit Peyton Manning on your fantasy team.
Cowboys – 3 GIANTS
We have a dominant run offense, that will be well rested (bye), matching up against the NFL’s worst run defense, a unit that has been worn down by the physical running games of Seattle and San Francisco the past two weeks. New York is 0-7 against teams that currently have winning records with an average margin of defeat of 16 points, while Dallas is the league’s only undefeated road team. Courtesy of R.J. Bell (Pregame.com): road favorites coming off a bye are 50-16 against the spread! Wow, right? Buy the half point if you can’t find three.
Last Week’s Record: 3-1; Overall Record: 35-36; Heavy Play: 3-3
Daniel Mogollon is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America and the Football Writers Association of America. He is also a voter for the Thorpe and the Rotary Lombardi Award, as well as the Latino Sports MVP Awards. You can reach him via email: firstname.lastname@example.org.
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