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'The Economist' Puts Biden's Chances of Winning at 85 Percent

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'The Economist' Puts Biden's Chances of Winning at 85 Percent

2020-06-23 17:33:35

By Laura Tucker, Staff writer; Image: Joe Biden (Image source: Screenshot)


With many national polls showing Donald Trump trailing Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential race, and the numbers continuing to plummet for Trump, "The Economist" has chimed in and is putting the presumptive Democratic nominee's chances of winning at 85 percent while giving the president just a 14 percent chance of being reelected.

The Economist uses state and national polling figures to determine up-to-date prognostications. Along with an 85-percent chance of winning, it further said on Monday that Biden had a 97-percent chance of winning the popular vote. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by 3 million in 2016 against Trump. His chance of winning the popular vote this time sits at only 3 percent.

These numbers show a very slight drop over the pairs' numbers last Friday. At that time it estimated the former vice president's chances of winning at 88 percent and the current president's chances at 12 percent. This was the biggest difference in numbers this year.

An Ipso/Reuters poll last Wednesday showed 48 percent of registered voters supported Biden, while just 35 percent backed Trump. Fox News released polling data last Thursday that showed Biden carrying 50 percent of registered voters and Trump only 38 percent.

FiveThirtyEight analyzed state and national polling averages on Monday afternoon and put Biden ahead of Trump by 8.9 points with percentages of 50 and 41 percent. Daily polling by the site shows the Democrat's numbers rising slowly throughout the month with the Republican's doing the opposite.

Trump has balked at poll legitimacy. Even when his favored network, Fox News, published its results last week, the president tweeted that the poll was "phony" and the conservative news network "terrible."

These poll results, along with his terrible showing at his weekend rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma, could be why his campaign is pushing for more debates with Biden, trying to make a drastic change. In a letter from Biden's campaign manager, Jen O'Malley Dillon, to the Commission on Presidential Debates that was obtained by Fox News, she lays out why the Biden campaign will stick to the three debates that are customary for presidential candidates.

"While I know no formal debate invitation will be issued to Joe Biden or Donald Trump until after the Party Conventions and the CPD's invitation process, I wanted to set forth our views on how the Commission should proceed with planning for the fall debates," wrote Dillon.

She lays out that after the official invitations, the planned debates are already set for September 29, October 15, and October 22, with the vice presidential debate taking place on October 7. She noted that Biden and his unnamed running mate will participate in those, and they "hope that President Trump and Vice President Pence will similarly indicate their willingness to participate."

While noting that Biden "looks forward to facing Donald Trump" in the debates, she adds hope that Trump "would not break that tradition or make excuses for a refusal to participate."

Dillon recognizes in her letter that the president is "trailing badly in the polls" and "desperate to change the subject from his failed leadership of the country."

"We are seeing reports that he has his own proposal for debates — after having said, just six months ago, that he might not want to participate at all in planned debates," she continued. "No one should be fooled: the Trump campaign's news position is a debate distraction." She also writes that it seems like he will only debate if he can pick the moderators.

The Trump campaign's communications director, Tim Murtaugh, fired back, "It's pretty obvious that Joe Biden's handlers are afraid to send their candidate out without a script and teleprompter handy. An earlier and longer debate schedule is necessary so Americans can see the clear difference between President Trump's vibrant leadership and  Biden's confused meandering."

He also slams Biden's speech in Philadelphia last week, noting there's "a question of whether he can answer [the phone] at 3:00 in the afternoon."

It was during a call between Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale and Trump's personal attorney Rudy Giuliani and the debate commission that more debates were requested, as well as an earlier start.

It seems pretty clear with Trump's failing numbers that his campaign is hoping with earlier and more frequent debates, that Trump can bring his numbers up. Of course, this was before his dismal showing in Tulsa.

Dillon also pushed for the second debate to be in a "town hall" format, "as it has for every debate cycle since 1992" and that the commission make "provisions for citizen participation in that debate even if COVID remains a concern." 

Just as Trump's team is convinced he can bring this thing back around to his favor by facing off against Biden, the former vice president's team seems convinced he will be very successful in a format that allows him to address the public.

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