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Sports

College Football: Breaking Down the Heisman Trophy Odds Heading into Week 13

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College Football: Breaking Down the Heisman Trophy Odds Heading into Week 13

2019-11-21 13:11:451 Oct 2018 01:53 AM EST

-by Daniel Mogollon, Staff Writer; Image: LSU Tigers quarterback Joe Burrow strikes a pose against Ole Miss. (Image Source: Getty Images)

Here’s a look at the top five Heisman candidates heading into Week 13 (odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook):

QB Joe Burrow, LSU (-1,115)

3,687 yards, 38 TDs, 6 INTs, 78.6%, 10.8 YPP, 202.7 Rating

215 rush yards, 3 rush TDs (10 Games Played)

With a whopping 489 yards on 32 of 42 passing against Ole Miss, Joe Burrow continues to obliterate the SEC, as well as the LSU record books, as he set the school record for single-season passing yards. With 38 touchdowns through 10 games, Burrow is within striking distance of Drew Lock’s single-season SEC record of 44 TD passes. Another week closer to Heisman day, Burrow’s lead grows (was -910 last week) as the odds-on favorite, one which offers no value at this point in time.

This Week: vs. Arkansas: If LSU wanted to, Burrow could probably throw for 500 yards and seven touchdowns to match Lock this Saturday against an Arkansas team that is winless in conference play and coming off a 26-point loss to Western Kentucky. 

QB Justin Fields, Ohio State (+700)

2,164 yards, 31 TDs, 1 INT, 68.2%, 9.4 YPP, 191.8 Rating

377 rush yards, 10 rush TDs (10 Games Played)

It took just 19 passes for Justin Fields to throw for 305 yards and four touchdowns against woeful Rutgers, as OSU became the first team since Nebraska in 1971 to win their first 10 games by at least 24 points. His odds have increased from +1,000 to +700 as Burrow’s top threat. While I’ve long believed that Fields provided the best value among the Heisman candidates, when you look at his numbers, they fall short…in some cases by a wide margin. His game against RU was his first 300-yard effort of the season.

This Week: vs. Penn State: What separates Fields as the top threat at this point, is the opportunity that lies ahead. The biggest games in the next two weeks involve the Buckeyes, as OSU goes up against Penn State this Saturday, followed by Michigan. All eyes on will be on Fields & Company against the Nittany Lions, so if he plays his best game of the season, it could cause some pause in Heisman voters before they mail in their ballots with Burrow on top. 

QB Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma (+1,200)

3,039 yards, 28 TDs, 5 INTs, 73.0%, 12.3 YPP, 209.1 Rating

983 rush yards, 15 rush TDs (10 Games Played)

When the Sooners trailed 28-3 we were writing the obituary to Jalen Hurts’s Heisman (and OU’s playoff) chances. Then something magical happened, as Hurts led Oklahoma back at undefeated Baylor for OU’s biggest comeback win in school history. He threw for 297 yards and four touchdowns, with another 114 yards on the ground. His fourth 100-yard rushing game of the season and the fifth time he’s posted over 400 yards of offense. The 21-point halftime comeback was the biggest ever in the history of FBS football (since 1937) against a team that was 9-0 or better. That’s why Hurts gets a slight bump in his Heisman odds (+1,400 last week). In my opinion, he should be second only to Burrow.

This Week: vs. TCU: Before closing out the season at ranked Oklahoma State and a likely rematch with Baylor in the Big 12 Championship Game, the Sooners take on TCU this Saturday. The bad news for Hurts (and OU) is the Horned Frogs are only 5-5, so there is no marque value. The good news is they’ll have the primetime slot on FOX.

DE Chase Young, Ohio State (+2,000)

29 tackles, 15.5 tackles for loss, 13.5 sacks

1 pass breakup, 5 forced fumbles, 1 blocked kick (8 Games Played)

For the second-straight Saturday, Chase Young sat out while his team won big, so I’m not exactly sure why he gets any bump in his Heisman odds this week (+3,300 last week). It seems like people are betting on Young just for fun. Right? Is he the top NFL prospect? Probably. But he has no shot at winning the Heisman in my opinion. Save your money.

This Week: @ Penn State: In theory, if Young can replicate his performance against Wisconsin, which spurred his Heisman campaign, it’s possible that the defensive end could make a case to be the first pure defensive player to win the Heisman trophy. Maybe. But he’ll probably have to burst through for at least three or four sacks and have some sort of freaky athletic play. A lot to ask, which is why he’s a long shot.  

Daniel Mogollon is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America and the Football Writers Association of America. He is also a voter for the Thorpe and the Rotary Lombardi Award, as well as the Latino Sports MVP Awards. You can reach him via email: danmogollon@gmail.com.                        

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