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College Football: Breaking Down the Heisman Trophy Odds Heading into Week 12

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College Football: Breaking Down the Heisman Trophy Odds Heading into Week 12

2019-11-14 12:32:461 Oct 2018 01:53 AM EST

-by Daniel Mogollon, Staff Writer; Image: LSU Tigers quarterback Joe Burrow attempts pass against Alabama. (Image Source: Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

Here’s a look at the top five Heisman candidates heading into Week 12 (odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook):

QB Joe Burrow, LSU (-910)

3,198 yards, 33 TDs, 4 INTs, 78.9%, 10.7 YPP, 202.5 Rating

189 rush yards, 3 rush TDs (9 Games Played)

The quarterback led the Tigers to a win in the “game of the century,” as LSU appears to have locked up a spot in the College Football Playoff, as well as the Heisman Trophy for Burrow. He was nothing short of brilliant, completing 31 of 39 passes for 393 yards and three touchdowns (0 INTs) with a season-high 64 rushing yards. His decision making was impeccable. Burrow knew when to run, when to hand off, when to throw. He got the Tigers out to a big early lead and when Alabama came storming back in the second half, Burrow responded with touchdowns as LSU pulled off the upset in Tuscaloosa. By beating his top Heisman rival head-to-head, Burrow is now a prohibitive favorite to win the award as he’s gone from +150 to -910. It looks over, but we thought that last season as well when it was Tua Tagovailoa who appeared to have run away from the field. Right now, there’s no value with the Bayou Bengal.

This Week: @ Ole Miss: After knocking off three teams ranked in the top-10 over the past four games, Burrow and the Tigers can take a breath against the Rebels who are 4-6 on the season. They should be able to cruise to the SEC Championship Game.

QB Justin Fields, Ohio State (+1,000)

1,859 yards, 27 TDs, 1 INT, 68.2%, 8.8 YPP, 183.5 Rating

347 rush yards, 10 rush TDs (9 Games Played)

It was a typical game for Fields. He accumulates touchdowns with very good but not eye-popping passing numbers. The Georgia transfer was 16 of 25 for 200 yards and three touchdowns through the air, as well as his 10th rushing touchdown of the season against a pit-falling Maryland team. Fields saw his odds drop from +800 to +1,000, but did leapfrog two contenders to become Burrow’s toughest challenger down the stretch of the season.

This Week: @ Rutgers: Fields has a stretch of three-straight marquee games (assuming OSU makes the B1G title game) coming up, but there’s nothing special about this week’s contest at Rutgers. Other than the fact the Buckeyes are favored by over 50 points in a conference road game. Fields may not finish the second quarter.

QB Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma (+1,400)

2,742 yards, 24 TDs, 4 INTs, 73.3%, 13.3 YPP, 219.7 Rating

869 rush yards, 15 rush TDs (9 Games Played)

The Sooners held on to win against Iowa State, 42-41, which could cost OU and is probably being held against Hurts who saw his odds sink from +400 to +1,400. Hurts still accounted for five touchdowns in the game, all in the first half, and is approaching 50+ TDs accounted for on the season. He’s still comfortably ahead in terms of yards per pass, rating, and rushing yards for a QB, but it probably won’t matter much in the end.

This Week: @ Baylor: If Hurts is going work his way back, this week is a huge game for his longshot chances. It’s a primetime game against the first-place team in the Big 12, undefeated Baylor. But if he’s going use this game as a spring board, Hurts will probably have to put on a historic-type show.

QB Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama (+2,200)

2,584 yards, 31 TDs, 3 INTs, 70.9%, 11.0 YPP, 204.9 Rating

25 rush yards, 2 rush TDs (8 Games Played)

How often does a quarterback throw for 418 yards and four touchdowns against the No. 1 AP team in the country and see their Heisman hopes sunk? That’s exactly what happened to Tagovailoa, who almost led the Crimson Tide back from 20 down at halftime. In the end, it was not enough. His two first-half turnovers (fumble, INT) played a big role in Alabama falling behind and while he put up gaudy numbers, Tua was far from consistently sharp with his passes (21 of 40). He didn’t look 100 percent, but those are the breaks. With the loss, not only did Tua’s Heisman odds drop from +250 to +2,200, he’s also now the fourth choice after being in the top two for weeks.

This Week: @ Mississippi State: Like LSU, Alabama heads to the state of Mississippi for what should be an easy game. They need style points, but it’s more about the Crimson Tide’s CFB Playoff chances, than Tua’s dwindling Heisman hopes.

DE Chase Young, Ohio State (+3,300)

29 tackles, 15.5 tackles for loss, 13.5 sacks

1 pass breakup, 5 forced fumbles, 1 blocked kick (8 Games Played)

Serving a suspension, Young did not play in OSU’s blowout win over Maryland. That certainly hurt his cause as the defensive end went from longshot (+900) to no shot (+5000) earlier in the week. Upon announcement that his suspension would last just one more game, his odds moved up to +3,300.

This Week: Suspended: Young will miss this week’s contest at Rutgers but will return to the lineup for Penn State and Michigan.  

Daniel Mogollon is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America and the Football Writers Association of America. He is also a voter for the Thorpe and the Rotary Lombardi Award, as well as the Latino Sports MVP Awards. You can reach him via email: danmogollon@gmail.com.                        

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