2019-06-07 13:20:361 Oct 2018 01:53 AM EST
At a time when things aren't going Donald Trump's way — whether legislatively or with investigations, recent polls are compounding that by suggesting he may be in trouble heading into his 2020 reelection campaign. He's greatly behind in some key states he carried in 2016.
It should be noted before going any further that these are very early polls and that polls certainly aren't scientific in the least. If you followed the polls in 2016, Trump was not expected to win against former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
The Quinnipiac survey showed that Trump is trailing behind former Vice President Joe Biden in Texas, of all states, by four points. He holds meaningless leads over the other 22 Democrats, which certainly isn't good news for former Rep. Beto O'Rourke. He lost the Senate race to Ted Cruz last November, and now isn't carrying his state in the early 2020 presidential polls.
But this is more surprising for Trump. He carried Texas by nine points in his first election. This is also in a state that figures heavily into Trump's immigration plans, so it would seem they are not supporting his ideas. If the Democrats are going to hold on to that lead, that could spell trouble for Republicans trying to keep the White House for another four years.
Poll results were also released for Michigan. Detroit News/WDIV-TV conducted a poll by the Glengariff Group, and that showed Trump was trailing Biden as well as Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) by an astounding 12 points. This is a state Trump just barely won in 2016, yet now he's trailing the two top Democrats by double digits.
Also leading Trump in Michigan are South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA).
It's easy to see how Trump might have comparative or slightly lower numbers than Biden and Sanders. Many assume that had Biden run in 2016 that he would have won, yet he took a pass after his son passed away. Sanders was running close behind Clinton in the primaries that year and carried many of the same supporters into the 2020 race.
But those leads are in double digits! And Trump is trailing three Democrats who don't have nearly the star power in Buttigieg, Warren, and Harris.
There was also a Quinnipiac poll in Pennsylvania a few weeks back. It's yet another state that Trump carried in 2016. The poll shows Biden is leading Trump by double digits, with Sanders ahead of Trump by 7 points. The other Democrats are either ahead or behind Trump within the margin of error.
Moving beyond the straight numbers, less than 36 percent of voters indicate they will definitely reelect Trump in Michigan, yet more than 51 percent say they plan to vote for someone else. That should be troublesome to the president's campaign.
While Trump carried independents in Texas in 2016 by 16 points, they disapprove of him now by a whopping margin of 21 points. It's a similar story in Pennsylvania. He won among the independents by seven points in 2016, but now they disapprove of him by 20 points. He needs those independent voters for a sure win.
Not all states are so heavily in favor of Biden and/or Sanders. A Florida Atlantic University poll showed the race close, within the margin of error. This is a state Trump carried by a little more than a point last time.
In Arizona Biden is leading by four points over Trump. Like Texas, it's another big red state that would be a big loss to Trump's numbers. He won the state by four points in 2016, and that's what his numbers indicate when looking at Democrats other than the former vice president.
In all three major national polls so far this year, Biden and Sanders are leading outside the margin of error. Warren holds insignificant leads in all three of the polls with Harris and Buttigieg close to Trump.
Again, these polls are far from scientific, and it's still very early. But for a president who cares a lot about ratings and appearances, it doesn't look good for him.
He won in 2016 when people were looking for something different than who they elect time and again. But after two years of him as president, voters now know more about him and aren't as willing to take that chance on him.
If Trump loses the independents as well as the more conservative Democrats, he will struggle for sure, especially when up against a more conservative Democrat such as Biden. Trump needs more than his MAGA-wearing base.
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